Sea Ice

It is possible to assign plausibility values to the future projections of a key factor,
i.e. to state that one of the future projections is expected to be much more likely
to occur than the others.
Example 1
The key factor ‘Foreign Policy’ has the future projections ‘Containment’, ‘Preemptive
Strikes’ and ‘Isolation’. One might consider ‘Containment’ to be the most
likely future foreign policy and therefore assign it a plausibility value of 0.65, while
‘Isolation’ is very unlikely with just 0.1. Since plausibility values need to add up
to 1 that leaves ‘Preemptive Strikes’ with 0.25.
Keep in mind that these occurrence plausibilities are ad-hoc plausibilities, i.e.
they are based on assumptions of one future development without considering
dependencies between two or more future developments. Plausibility values are
merely a tool to identify futures that are regarded more likely than others; they
are not capable of giving an absolute occurrence probability for a future projection.
Not assigning plausibility values is equivalent to assuming an equal distribution
of plausibility values among the future projections of a key factor. This is the
default setting in ScenLab.