Posts Tagged Scenarios 2030

Early Indicator: Beluga Shipping attempting Nothern Sea Route

Beluga Shipping of Bremen, Germany has two freighters in port at Vladivostok, Russia to be the first commercial vessels to attempt the Norther Sea Route this summer.

I found a comprehensive article in this in the Frankfurter Rundschau (in German). And a news blurb on the NYTimes blog (in English).

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Early Indicators: Russia creates Arctic Force/Norway Claims Territory

This has been in several news outlets over the past few weeks. A Russian Government Strategy Paper outlines an Arctic Force to protect Russia’s claim in the regions. I found an more in depth review of the plans on the Jamestown Foundation’s web page.

Furthermore, Norway is in the process of legislating a formal claim to an area close to the North Pole based on the revised Law of the Sea Treaty.

These political signals could be early indicators for the more tension loaded scenarios.

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SCIAM NW Passage Slide Show

Scientific American has a slide show online about the state of the North West Passage in a changing climate. Very nicely enhanced satelite images and some informative text.

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Quick link to the Scenarios for the Arctic 2030

Due to popular demand, here’s a quick link to the Scenarios: Robust Development, Consistent Business, Plausible Futures, Bleak Outlook.

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Robustness-Analysis in a nutshell

I recently presented a poster on the Robustness-Analysis at the Lessons from Continuity and Change in the Fourth International Polar Year Conference in Fairbanks, Ak. The Robustness-Analysis Poster summarizes the Robustness-Analysis in a very compact form.


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Piracy – KF Safety of other routes

The CNN Report here relates directly to the KF Safety of other routes. The number of pirate attackes in the Indian Ocean/Gulf of Aden region is soaring.

Especially interesting is the last paragraph – Maritime Company Odfjell SE is directing all its ships on the southern route around Africa instead of through the Suez Canal. This increases their cost, but lowers the risk of being attacked.

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