Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Deļ¬nitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
Posts Tagged Scenarios 2030
Early Indicator: Beluga Shipping attempting Nothern Sea Route
Posted by Marc in Uncategorized on August 11, 2009
Beluga Shipping of Bremen, Germany has two freighters in port at Vladivostok, Russia to be the first commercial vessels to attempt the Norther Sea Route this summer.
I found a comprehensive article in this in the Frankfurter Rundschau (in German). And a news blurb on the NYTimes blog (in English).
Early Indicators: Russia creates Arctic Force/Norway Claims Territory
Posted by Marc in Arctic, Early Indicators, Scenarios on April 17, 2009
This has been in several news outlets over the past few weeks. A Russian Government Strategy Paper outlines an Arctic Force to protect Russia’s claim in the regions. I found an more in depth review of the plans on the Jamestown Foundation’s web page.
Furthermore, Norway is in the process of legislating a formal claim to an area close to the North Pole based on the revised Law of the Sea Treaty.
These political signals could be early indicators for the more tension loaded scenarios.
SCIAM NW Passage Slide Show
Scientific American has a slide show online about the state of the North West Passage in a changing climate. Very nicely enhanced satelite images and some informative text.
Quick link to the Scenarios for the Arctic 2030
Due to popular demand, here’s a quick link to the Scenarios: Robust Development, Consistent Business, Plausible Futures, Bleak Outlook.
Robustness-Analysis in a nutshell
I recently presented a poster on the Robustness-Analysis at the Lessons from Continuity and Change in the Fourth International Polar Year Conference in Fairbanks, Ak. The Robustness-Analysis Poster summarizes the Robustness-Analysis in a very compact form.
Piracy – KF Safety of other routes
The CNN Report here relates directly to the KF Safety of other routes. The number of pirate attackes in the Indian Ocean/Gulf of Aden region is soaring.
Especially interesting is the last paragraph – Maritime Company Odfjell SE is directing all its ships on the southern route around Africa instead of through the Suez Canal. This increases their cost, but lowers the risk of being attacked.