Sea Ice

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 9, Uncertainty: 14, Sum: 23
Classification: Economics, Politics
The global economic growth determines he overall drive of developing new
resources, as it is an indicator for pressure on existing resources and the level of
risk in investments.

3.1 Second Industrial Explosion

Plausibility: 0.1

This FP comprises an average global growth of GDP above 8 % in 2010 to 2020.
The pressure on existing resources and shipping routes due to very strong demand
is extremely high. Very high revenues for states and companies provide enormous
sources of venture capital. However, such a rapid growth leaves the global economy
highly volatile.

3.2 High Growth

Plausibility: 0.15

This FP comprises an average global growth of GDP between 5 and 8 % in 2010
to 2020. The pressure on existing resources and shipping routes due to strong
demand is high. High revenues for states and companies provide good sources of
venture capital for sound projects. The economy is somewhat volatile.

3.3 Moderate Growth

Plausibility: 0.4

This FP comprises an average global growth of GDP between 2 and 5 % in 2010
to 2020. The global economy growths slowly but stable. Pressure on existing
resources and shipping routes is rising but predictable. Investments are made in
very sound projects only.

3.4 Low Growth

Plausibility: 0.25

This FP comprises an average global growth of GDP between 1 and 2 % in 2010
to 2020. The global economy is permanently on the brink of a recession. Global
players act very carefully. The investment strategy is ’wait and see’ and ’don’t’
spend any money right now’. Governments invest where they can to give the
economy a boost.

3.5 Collapse of Global Economy

Plausibility: 0.1

This FP comprises an average global growth of GDP below 1 % in 2010 to 2020.
Whole industries collapse. The remaining companies have to regroup. There is no
interest in new investments.