Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Definitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
Shape the future
While the four scenarios above give an overview of possible futures for the Arctic by 2030, this overview is in no way comprehensive. Further, what might look like a great picture of the future to one stakeholder could be the worst case for another. Note again, that these scenarios are not predictions and that the actual future
might be very different from the ones depicted.
I encourage the reader to use one of the morphological matrixes in Figures 1 to 4 and draw their favorite picture of the future into them. This should (i) induce a thought process as to what a favorable future would look like and (ii) allow to plan a strategy as to how to shape this future by political, economic and social
means.
Further, once a favorable scenario is found it is possible to use the consistency matrix (Section 6) and the plausibility values (Section 4) to compare this scenario to the ones given above. For further instructions on calculating these values see Appendix C.
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