16. World Trade Patterns

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 4, Uncertainty: 6, Sum: 10
Classification: Economics, Politics
The large economies in Europe and North America trade most goods with
economies on the same continent. Their large trade partners in the in Asia are
Japan and China. With the exception of trade between China, Japan and Europe,
using the shipping routes through the Arctic does not have an obvious advantage.
European trade with Russia is mainly natural gas, which is transported by pipeline
through eastern Europe and a planned pipeline through the Baltic.

16.1 Little change

Plausibility: 0.5
The main overseas trade partners of Europe and North America stay the same.
The patterns of trade flow do not change.

16.2 Moderate Change

Plausibility: 0.25
The economy of Russia’s North Asian regions is slowly growing. The trade volume
between North America and Europe and those regions is increasing moderately.

16.3 Strong Change

Plausibility: 0.25
After a major crash of China’s economy the North Asian regions of Russia fill the
trade gap and their economies grow rapidly. Russia becomes an important trade
partner, not only for fossil fuels, but for other goods.

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