Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Definitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
16. World Trade Patterns
AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 4, Uncertainty: 6, Sum: 10
Classification: Economics, Politics
The large economies in Europe and North America trade most goods with
economies on the same continent. Their large trade partners in the in Asia are
Japan and China. With the exception of trade between China, Japan and Europe,
using the shipping routes through the Arctic does not have an obvious advantage.
European trade with Russia is mainly natural gas, which is transported by pipeline
through eastern Europe and a planned pipeline through the Baltic.
16.1 Little change
Plausibility: 0.5
The main overseas trade partners of Europe and North America stay the same.
The patterns of trade flow do not change.
16.2 Moderate Change
Plausibility: 0.25
The economy of Russia’s North Asian regions is slowly growing. The trade volume
between North America and Europe and those regions is increasing moderately.
16.3 Strong Change
Plausibility: 0.25
After a major crash of China’s economy the North Asian regions of Russia fill the
trade gap and their economies grow rapidly. Russia becomes an important trade
partner, not only for fossil fuels, but for other goods.