Sea Ice

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 4, Uncertainty: 7, Sum: 11
Classification: Economics, Politics
For transit shipping, that is for shipping without destination in the Arctic, the
use of the Arctic shipping routes only makes sense if the overall costs of using the
routes can compete with alternatives such as the Panama canal. For example, the
fees for a Panamax container ship (4,400 TEU) to pass the Panama canal are US$
237,600 [Panama Canal Authority], plus the cost of any other services such as pilots, tugging, etc.
However, some of these costs are saved by the shorter route through the canal.
It has to be considered, that if a more cost-effective route opens in the North
other routes might reduce their fees to compete.

11.1 Economically viable fees

Plausibility: 0.5
Transit fees through the Arctic can compete with those of alternative routes.

11.2 Excessive and unpredictable fee structure

Plausibility: 0.5
Fees for shipping good through the Arctic are very high. It does not make any
sense to ship through the Arctic unless the cargo’s destination is in the area.