Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Deļ¬nitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
8. Windows of Operation
AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 7, Uncertainty: 7, Sum: 14
Classification: Economics, Politics, Technology
Windows of operations are the times of the year during which the exploitation
of resources or shipping through the Arctic is economically viable. These windows
are first of all limited by the climatic conditions. However, development of
new technologies such as horizontal drilling, submarine oil rigs and stronger ice
breakers, could significantly extend windows of operation. Other limits on these
windows might be imposed by environmental factors (politically enforced) such as
the breeding season of rare species.
8.1 Limited windows of operation
Plausibility: 0.5
8.2 Moderate windows of operation
Plausibility: 0.4
8.3 Free reign
Plausibility: 0.1
#1 by HajoEicken on October 1, 2008 - 6:31 am
It might help to say what limited and moderate refer to: 1 month vs. 4 months of operation?