Sea Ice

The raw scenario not containing a Wild Card with the highest consistency value.

The raw scenario shown in Figure 2 is the one found to have the highest average consistency value. It stems from a run of the ScenLab algorithm with the Wild Card feature turned off. The algorithm was instructed to search for the raw scenario with the highest consistency value. Note however, that Table 1 shows this raw scenario to have a low robustness value and a very low plausibility value.
The scenario: The cooperative global effort to transition to a hydrogen based energy system has sparked a new industrial explosion. In the wake of this multilateral success agreements about the political status of the Arctic are made. The littoral states of the Arctic and other global players cooperate closely in the economic development of the region. A strong international police and disaster response force minimizes the impact of this development on the Arctic environment.
Since oil is no longer used as fuel, but only for highly value added products its price becomes less volatile. Nonetheless, it is steadily increasing as known reserves dwindle. This, and the search for other resources drives the economic development in the Arctic. Further, due to the massive growth of the global economy, shipping through the Southern sea routes has reach maximum capacity. And the changing
climate, exceeding all model predictions, opens the Arctic’s sea routes for year round service to the Northern hemisphere. The indigenous people of the Arctic, having lost their traditional lifestyle due to the changing climate, partake in the economic development.
Wild Cards: This scenario is very volatile. Under the influence of either Wild Card it would most-likely collapse. The break down of the thermohaline circulation and an essentially ice free Arctic are inconsistent and a war in the Arctic and the forging of a strong, cooperative alliance to manage the region are inconsistent as well.