Scenarios

The data presented in Sections 4 and 5 is used to find robust, consistent and plausible future projection bundles (aka raw scenarios). Due to the amount of data and the combinatorial problem involved (see C.6) this process is software based utilizing evolve:IT’s ScenLab v1.7. Further, the genetic algorithm mode of ScenLab was used to find raw scenarios. Due to the stochastic nature of this algorithm it was run 10 times to find the most robust, consistent and plausible raw scenarios respectively. The results for the multiple runs were consistent, i.e. the top 30 raw scenarios were the same in the respective runs of the algorithm.
From ScenLab’s output a variety of raw scenarios (Table 1) was selected for further production of the final scenarios. The criteria employed for selection of raw scenarios were: (i) no more than two partial inconsistencies, (ii) ideally a combination of high robustness, consistency and plausibility values, (iii) diversity of the set of selected raw scenarios.

Decsription r c p pI Wild Card
Scenario 1
Most robust 0.7239 0.1433 6.69 × 10−7 0 none
Robust, consistent, plausible 0.7086 0.1579 2.01 × 10−7 0 none
Robust, plausible 0.5150 0.1404 9.37 × 10−7 1 none
Robust, Wild Card 0.4632 0.1520 6.76 × 10−9 1 Hot Cold War
Scenario 2
Most consistent 0.3805 0.4004 5.00 × 10−12 0 none
Scenario 3
Most plausible 0.4212 0.1287 1.17 × 10−6 2 none
Plausible, variation 0.4206 0.1228 1.17 × 10−6 2 none
Plausible, variation 0.4203 0.1199 1.17 × 10−6 2 none
Plausible, Wild Card 0.3767 0.1345 6.76 × 10−7 2 Hot Cold War
Scenario 4
Scenario 4 0.4272 0.2953 1.10 × 10−10 1 none
Scenario 4, Wild Card 0.3658 0.3480 1.11 × 10−12 1 Hot Cold War

Sections 7.1-7.3 describe scenarios derived from highest scoring raw scenarios, that is, from the most robust, the most consistent and the most plausible raw scenario respectively. The scenario in Section 7.4 is given to diversify the range of described futures. The raw scenarios utilized for this are in no way special, but were picked deliberately because of their difference to the first three scenarios.

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