Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Deļ¬nitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
17. Regulation in the Arctic
AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 3, Uncertainty: 3, Sum: 6
Classification: Economics, Politics
This KF is concerned with the legal restrictions promulgated by government
or international agencies on activities in the Arctic region.
17.1 Do as you wish
Plausibility: 0.15
Anything in the Arctic ocean is fair game. There is no or very little regulation of
economic activity in the Arctic region. Further, there is no agreement on regulations
between the littoral countries.
17.2 Moderate regulation
Plausibility: 0.5
The littoral countries agree on a lose framework of regulations in the Arctic to
prevent major environmental disasters and overheating of economic activity.
17.3 EU of the North
Plausibility: 0.35
A strong set of rules for the Arctic exists. These rules are enforced by an international
agency instated by the littoral countries and override national laws. Main
focal points are protection of the environment, economic competition and public
safety and welfare.