5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 5, Uncertainty: 14, Sum: 19
Classification: Economics, Politics, Sociology

A changing climate will impact the living conditions especially in costal and
island regions due to sea level rise, higher latitudes due to more severe impact of
temperature and precipitation changes and equatorial latitudes due to desertification.
These changes will shift economic and migratory patterns.

5.1 Loss and conflict worldwide

Plausibility: 0.3
The changing climate exerts extreme pressure on the worlds population. Massive
migratory waves swap around the globe due to draughts, floods, sea level rise and
severe changes in local weather. The streams of migrants are managed poorly. The
parts of the world less impacted by climate change do not wish to accommodate
as many migrants as possible. Violent conflicts arise.

5.2 Loss and conflict regional

Plausibility: 0.4
Based on climate and economic models the economic impact of climate change
has been predicted to be very in-homogeneous [Mendelsohn et al.]. The higher
latitude regions will actually benefit from climate change economically. However,
especially equatorial regions will experience a decrease in economic growth due to
a changing climate. This leads to conflicts in these regions and with neighboring
countries north and south of the region.

5.3 Gain and Cooperation

Plausibility: 0.3
The changing climate and its implications for society are well managed on a global
level. There is a mutual understanding that everybody is responsible to a certain
degree for the changing climate and hence the high impact regions are supported
by moderate impact regions. Further, the changing climate drives technological
development which results in economic profits world-wide.

  1. #1 by Steinmueller on October 6, 2008 - 9:11 am

    Perhaps one could be more specific here and not only cover the question of cooperation / no cooperation. The main point would be whether a global regime is established to curb green house gas emissions and impacts of climate change. Such regimes could be quite different (Kyoto like CO2 trading or massive joint investments in CCS carbon capture and sequestration). The future projections could cover impacts of such regimes on fuel prices, transportation cost, use of Arctic ressources etc. This could give better linking points for the consistency analysis.

  2. #2 by Marc on December 2, 2008 - 11:57 am

    @Steinmueller
    I would rather not be this specific here. We are more interested here in if, and in which way, the climate changes and not in why or why not.
    I think a good place to discuss possible ways of climate control and their impact is in the early/intermediate indicators of the final scenarios.

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