Sea Ice

Purple - raw scenario used (see Row 8 in Table 1); Red - Row 6; Green - Row 7; Yellow - Row9.

The raw scenarios shown in Figure 3 were derived from a ScenLab search for the most plausible future pro jection bundles. While the raw scenarios have a high plausibility value, their robustness value is only medium, their consistency is low with all of them having two partial inconsistencies. Note that the plausibility value of the raw scenario carrying the Wild Card (yellow in Figure 3) is two orders of magnitude less that that of the other three. The main raw scenario selected here is the purple one in Figure 3, this is because it differs most from the scenario ‘Robust Development’.
The scenario: The warming trend in the Arctic has slowed down. Weather and
ice conditions make navigating the Arctic waters dangerous. Work on permanent structures is limited to a short summer season. The uncertainty of varying ice conditions is mirrored by the political situation and the volatility of the main resources extracted from the region. Disputes over boundary lines in the Arctic flare up infrequently and developers have to deal with the different regulations and interpretations of international treaties of the littoral states.
Nonetheless, as fossil fuels are still the main source of energy for propulsion, the resources in the Arctic are developed. These efforts are supported by non-littoral states where profitable. The development interferes strongly with the indigenous people of the North, who are trying to hold on to their traditional way of life in a changing environment. Their hunting territory is diminished by oil and gas development and during times of regional conflict in the vicinity of ma jor Southern sea routes by shipping traffic through the Arctic. Even though, transit fees in the region are low, shipping is only economically viable if oil prices spike or alternative routes become temporarily unavailable.
Variations: A slightly more moderate climate could increase the development activity in the region. While excessive transit fees could reduce the economic viability of shipping routes in the North even further.
Wild Cards: Only the Wild Card ’Hot Cold War’ is consistent with this Scenario. Further, it appears robust under the influence of the Wild Card. Such a conflict might even spark the development of a new generation of nuclear propelled vessels. Note that this is only possible, should this Wild Card take place in years prior to 2030.