Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Deļ¬nitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
Scenarios
These pages provide information on the Scenarios for the Arctic by 2030 and the process employed. Please use the index at the bottom of this page for browsing through the full project notes. For the impatient reader: the actual Scenarios are here: Robust Development, Consistent Business, Plausible Futures, Bleak Outlook.
If you are unfamiliar with the methods of Scenario-Management in general or the Robustness-Analysis in particular I recommend to read these Sections first.
Each of the subsequent pages will allow you to post comments after you registered with this page. In order to register please use the ‘Register’ link in the menu bar. I appreciate any input. If you register and post comments with this page the full report concerning this project will be made available to you prior to official publication.
The webspace for this project and the scenario support software ScenLab are provided by evolve:IT, Complex Systems Solutions LLP.
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