14. Energy sources for propulsion

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 4, Uncertainty: 6, Sum: 10
Classification: Economics, Technology, Environment
Cheap, reliable energy supply for propulsion is critical in making the NSR and
the NWP an economically viable alternative to other routes. Further, propulsion
technologies with a higher energy output that the common diesel engines is favorable
to allow for ice breaking capabilities of civil vessels to free themselves from
light pack ice, thus expanding the windows of operation in the Arctic.
This KF is only concerned with the actual propulsion technology used aboard
a vessel. How the fuel, especially in the case of Hydrogen, is generated is of no
concern. Further, it is understood that the alternatives to fossil fuels mentioned in 14.1 to 14.3 are an addition to the energy mix used. They will not replace fossil fuels fully.

14.1 Nuclear propulsion

Plausibility: 0.2
Nuclear propulsion becomes an economically viable option for propulsion due to
the high cost of fossil fuels. The same high costs and convincing advances in
reactor safety have changed the public opinion of nuclear power. The reactors
used on-board of civil vessels are tamper-proof and can be shut down remotely
by the supplying company (compare to the SSTAR project, Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory, http://www.llnl.gov/str/JulAug04/Smith.html).

14.2 SkySails

Plausibility: 0.25
Technological developments such as SkySails (see SkySails, www.skysails.com) increase
the efficiency of fossil fuel powered vessels and buffer the increased costs for
fossil fuels, increase ice-breaker capabilities and travel velocities.

14.3 Hydrogen based propulsion

Plausibility: 0.2
Hydrogen has taken over the role of energy carrier for propulsion. Propulsion
mechanisms are powered electrically of through steam turbines powered by fuel
cells or by hydrogen combustion engines.
Note: all necessary technology for this FP is readily available today. The
problem is the supply of hydrogen which is usually produced from fossil fuels
which makes it more expensive than those. However, hydrogen can be produced
through electrolysis or through specialized bacteria as well. Further, a hydrogen
distribution system is missing.

14.4 Fossil fuels

Plausibility: 0.35
Fossil fuels still are the prime energy carrier for propulsion. Unlike expected, peak
oil has not been reached yet due to the discovery of vast amounts of new resources
and development of technology to tap fossil fuel resources in inaccessible regions.

  1. #1 by Steinmueller on September 27, 2008 - 9:42 am

    It would be more correct to speak about the shares of energy sources for propulsion.
    14.1 is Fossil Fuels + Some Nuclear (How much? When?)
    14.2 is Fossil Fuels + Some Sails (How much? When?)

    But: Is this realy a KF? Just try a cross-impact analysis (a la Micmac). Perhaps it is only important for
    – cost of sea transportation (this could be taken as KF instead of 14)
    – oil spills (perhaps better a WC?)

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  2. #2 by Marc on December 2, 2008 - 3:50 pm

    @Steinmueller
    I think this is significant on its own. One major problem in shipping through the Arctic is the supply of massive amounts of energy to make it through difficult ice conditions.

    I amended that the alternative fuel options are a mix with fossil fuels. I agree that those will not disappear so quickly.

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