Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Definitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
4. Assigning consistency values
| FP | DB | OKF | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | C | I | IB | SB | DB | P1 | P2 | ||
| Foreign Policy | Preemptive S | ||||||||
| Containment | |||||||||
| Isolation | |||||||||
| Defense Budget | Increasing | 2 | 1 | -1 | |||||
| Stable | 0 | 2 | 0 | ||||||
| Decreasing | -2 | -1 | 1 | ||||||
| Other key factor | Projection 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| Projection 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |||
Table 1: Example of a consistency matrix
The best way to assign the paired consistency values is to write all the future
projections into a matrix.
Table 1 shows such a consistency matrix for just three key factors with two or
three respective future projections. Even from this very small example it is obvious
that this kind of matrix will grow very rapidly with the number of key factors.
Because of the symmetry of the matrix it is sufficient to fill in the sub-diagonal
blocks.
Table 1 shows the paired consistency values for the future projections as well.
In this example the consistency values range from −2 to 2. Where −2 means
‘fully inconsistent’, 0 ‘neutral’ and 2 ‘fully consistent’. −1 and 1 stand for ‘partially
(in)consistent’. ScenLab allows the user to adjust the range of values to a
convenient range for the project.
For computational reasons ScenLab will internally re-scale any set range to the
interval [0, 1]. However, this does not change anything for the user.
It is crucial to use expert knowledge and experience to assign consistency values
to the pairs of future projections. It is especially important not to use extreme
judgements too frequently, that is total (in)consistencies. Usually most of the
future projections should be neutral to each other. Many will just be partially
(in)consistent.
- No comments yet.