Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Deļ¬nitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
North by 2020 Book to be published soon!
The book ‘North by 2020: Perspectives on Alaska’s changing social-ecological systems’, edited by A.L. Lovecraft and H. Eicken will be published towards the end of the year. This is a great collection of the state-of-the-art in Arctic research of all flavors. The scenario work presented on this page is part of the book.
Thanks to Amy and Hajo and many others for putting a lot of time and effort into this.
CNN Article on the race for resources
Posted by Marc in Early Indicators, Scenarios on July 16, 2011
Valuable Resources
Posted by Marc in Uncategorized on May 19, 2010
Two valuable resources concerning knowledge about the Arctic region in a changing climate.
The State of the Arctic 2010 conference in Miami, Fl this March was a great success and the scenarios were well received there. The people at ARCUS have posted video footage and a virtual poster session.
The North by 2020 at the University of Alaska Fairbanks is a very dynamic interdisciplinary group of researchers concerned with the Arctic with special focus on Alaska. A synthesis volume of our knowledge is currently being compiled. Stay tuned for the book.
Early Indicator: Beluga Shipping attempting Nothern Sea Route
Posted by Marc in Uncategorized on August 11, 2009
Beluga Shipping of Bremen, Germany has two freighters in port at Vladivostok, Russia to be the first commercial vessels to attempt the Norther Sea Route this summer.
I found a comprehensive article in this in the Frankfurter Rundschau (in German). And a news blurb on the NYTimes blog (in English).
Early Indicators: Russia creates Arctic Force/Norway Claims Territory
Posted by Marc in Arctic, Early Indicators, Scenarios on April 17, 2009
This has been in several news outlets over the past few weeks. A Russian Government Strategy Paper outlines an Arctic Force to protect Russia’s claim in the regions. I found an more in depth review of the plans on the Jamestown Foundation’s web page.
Furthermore, Norway is in the process of legislating a formal claim to an area close to the North Pole based on the revised Law of the Sea Treaty.
These political signals could be early indicators for the more tension loaded scenarios.
SCIAM NW Passage Slide Show
Scientific American has a slide show online about the state of the North West Passage in a changing climate. Very nicely enhanced satelite images and some informative text.
Quick link to the Scenarios for the Arctic 2030
Due to popular demand, here’s a quick link to the Scenarios: Robust Development, Consistent Business, Plausible Futures, Bleak Outlook.
Robustness-Analysis in a nutshell
I recently presented a poster on the Robustness-Analysis at the Lessons from Continuity and Change in the Fourth International Polar Year Conference in Fairbanks, Ak. The Robustness-Analysis Poster summarizes the Robustness-Analysis in a very compact form.
Consistency Matrix, ScenLab Project Files posted
I have posted the consistency matrix for download. Sorry, it’s to large to be visualized in a meaningful way on a webpage.
This is the matrix I am currently using to extract raw scenarios. Comments are very welcome, if you think I should re-evaluated some of the paired consistency values.
There are two versions, one for MS Excel and the other, more versatile for ScenLab v1.7 Client.
I have posted the ScenLab Client software, courtesy evolve:IT, here as well.
Piracy – KF Safety of other routes
The CNN Report here relates directly to the KF Safety of other routes. The number of pirate attackes in the Indian Ocean/Gulf of Aden region is soaring.
Especially interesting is the last paragraph – Maritime Company Odfjell SE is directing all its ships on the southern route around Africa instead of through the Suez Canal. This increases their cost, but lowers the risk of being attacked.