Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Definitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
About
This site is maintained by Marc Mueller-Stoffels, PhD.
Marc is the lead researcher for the Power Systems Integration Laboratory at the Alaska Center for Energy and Power (ACEP). ACEP focuses on the engineering and economic aspects of the integration of alternative energy sources into existing remote islanded diesel grids with the aim of alleviating high energy costs for rural communities in Alaska and beyond. Marc holds a PhD in Physics from UAF with a focus on complex systems models for Arctic sea ice retreat. Previously, Marc has worked in futures studies and strategy consulting with Z_punkt GmbH, Germany and as the co-founder and chair of evolve:IT, Complex Systems Solutions LLP, which supplied optimization software for scenario processes.
This site is hosted on webspace provided by evolve:IT, Complex Systems Solutions LLP.
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