Sea Ice

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 12, Uncertainty: 12, Sum: 24
Classification: Politics

The Legal Climate is determined by the way the governments with claims to
the Arctic Ocean interact and how they resolve their arguments.
At the moment, the littoral states of the Arctic Ocean have several transnational
disputes about maritime boundaries, fishing rights, and territorial boundaries
[CIA]. How these disputes are handled will be one of the factors that determines
legal climate in the Arctic in a World that is becoming more interested in
the newly available resources and routes in the North.
The legal climate sets the base for all economic exploration and exploitation.
Will companies that plan to do business in the Arctic Ocean have to deal with
just one managing council or will they have to deal with single countries that are
in conflict with other littoral states?

2.1 Arctic Treaty System – Multilateral Governance

Plausibility: 0.2 0.1

A treaty similar to the Antarctic Treaty System protects the Arctic Ocean. Economic
and scientific activities are regulated by the Arctic Council acting on behalf
of the littoral countries. Disputes are settled in annual meetings. The Arctic Ocean
is free of national military troops, but is protected by an international police force.
This force protects and enforces environmental and economic agreements about the
Arctic Ocean. Taxes are raised for all economic activities. The profits are split
between the littoral countries and the indigenous peoples with access to Arctic
waters.

2.2 Status Quo – Multilateral Council, Unilateral Action

Plausibility: 0.4 0.5

The Arctic Council (AC) is an intergovernmental forum for addressing many of the
common concerns and challenges faced by the Arctic states (Source: Arctic Council,
www.arctic-council.org). Further participants in the AC are six indigenous
people organizations and several observing non-Arctic governments, international
agencies and NGO’s.
The AC addresses environmental, social and economic issues. However, the
participating countries are not forced to oblige the decisions made by the council.
And it is not a forum for disputes over boundary, fishing or natural resource rights.
In this FP the littoral countries follow the international agreements on 12 nm (nautical  miles), 200 nm and continental shelf shipping, fishing and exploitation agreements.
However, the disputes mentioned in Section 2 are unresolved, although managed.

2.3 Tense Relationships – Unilateralism

Plausibility: 0.2

The AC becomes increasingly ineffective as key members do not follow the agreements
of the forum. Disagreement about boundaries and other issues is discussed
through the UN Security Council, but the problems remain unsolved. Political
tension about these issues leads to neglect of environmental safety, resource exploration
and indigenous peoples rights. The military presence in the Arctic Ocean
is high as the littoral countries distrust each other and feel that strong defenses
have to be in place.

2.4 Armed Conflict

Plausibility: 0.2

Due to the immense pressure to find and exploit new resources the littoral countries
and non-Arctic nations try to claim more and more parts of the Arctic Ocean for
themselves. Debates about claims are very heated and get out of hand. The
conflicts turn violent and spread into a full fledged war.