Sea Ice

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 7, Uncertainty: 3, Sum: 10
Classification: Economics, Politics, Society
The areas of subsistence populations and oil exploration, production, storage
and transport overlap heavily (Source: Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and
Response [EPPR], Circumpolar Map of Resources at Risk from Oil Spills in the
Arctic, 2002, http://eppr.arctic-council.org). That is, there are large areas where
the interest of very different groups overlap.

12.1 Creation of Wealth – low interference

Plausibility: 0.2
The subsistence populations of the Arctic are supported through a special tax on
resource extraction in and traffic through the Arctic and large areas of the region
are reserved for their needs. The interference of the industrial activities in the
Arctic with the life-style of subsistence groups is kept minimal.

12.2 Creation of Wealth at cost of traditional life-style

Plausibility: 0.3
Companies planing to extract resources in the Arctic or exploit the region in any
other way are required by law to offer training to members of the subsistence
populations and employ them once they have received sufficient training. As a
result, traditional lifestyles are eroded.

12.3 No interference – no profit

Plausibility: 0.2
Areas claimed by subsistence populations are ’no-go’ zones for industrial activity.
Interference between interest is kept as low as possible.

12.4 Strong interference – conflict

Plausibility: 0.3
The governments of the Arctic’s littoral countries allow for exploitation of resources
where ever possible without regard for the needs of subsistence populations. This
leads to tension and resistance by the subsistence populations ranging from law
suits to guerilla attacks on facilities in their claimed areas.