1. Key Factors and their Future Projections

The data input for the consistency analysis are key factors or more precisely the
selected possible future projections of each key factor.
Key factors are factors that primarily characterize the field under investigation.
It is crucial to the whole scenario process that these key factors are selected very
carefully. Missing important key factors or using the wrong assumptions will
jeopardize the whole scenario process.
One or more future projections are assigned to each key factor . It is important
to analyze the field under investigation carefully, but in the process of finding future
projections some creativity is needed as well. One has to ‘think what is out of the
box’ to account for possible future developments.
Using the standard algorithms for consistency analysis the number of key factors
is limited by the computational power available. Using more than about 30
key factors with two to three future projections will result in an unacceptably long
duration of calculations. It might even exceed the computational power available.
See Subsection 6 for further explanation.

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