Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Definitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
References
European Shipowner’s Association. Amount of transported goods. URL http://www.ecsa.be.
Panama Canal Authority. Transit fees. URL http://www.panamacanal.com.
Karen L. Bice, Daniel Birgel, Philip A. Meyers, Kristina A. Dahl, Kai-Uwe Hinrichs,
and Richard D. Norris. A multiple proxy and model study of cretaceous upper ocean temperatures and atmospheric co2 concentrations. Paleoceanography, 21, 2006.
International Marine Bureau. Piracy map, July 2007. URL http://www.icc-ccs.org/imb/overview.php.
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The World Factbook 2007. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), June 2007. URL www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html.
Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council. Faq about the spill. URL http://www.evostc.state.ak.us.
Susan Joy Hassol. Impacts of a warming arctic: Arctic climate impact assesment. Technical report, ACIA, 2004. URL http://www.acia.uaf.edu.
Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes. Shaping the next one hundred years: new methods for quantitive, long-term policy analysis. RAND, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 1st edition, 2003.
C. H. McMillan. Joint ventures in arctic resource development. URL http://www.carc.org/pubs/v16no4/7.htm.
R. Mendelsohn, L. Williams, and P.H. Smith. The impact of climate change measured
as a percent of gdp. URL http://environment.yale.edu/mendelsohn/maps/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, summary for policymakers. Technical report, IPCC, 2007.
Q. Schiermeier. A sea change. Nature, 439, January 2006.
J. L. Williams. Oil prices history and analysis. URL http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm.
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