Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Deļ¬nitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
Archive for category Arctic
North by 2020 Book to be published soon!
The book ‘North by 2020: Perspectives on Alaska’s changing social-ecological systems’, edited by A.L. Lovecraft and H. Eicken will be published towards the end of the year. This is a great collection of the state-of-the-art in Arctic research of all flavors. The scenario work presented on this page is part of the book.
Thanks to Amy and Hajo and many others for putting a lot of time and effort into this.
Early Indicators: Russia creates Arctic Force/Norway Claims Territory
Posted by Marc in Arctic, Early Indicators, Scenarios on April 17, 2009
This has been in several news outlets over the past few weeks. A Russian Government Strategy Paper outlines an Arctic Force to protect Russia’s claim in the regions. I found an more in depth review of the plans on the Jamestown Foundation’s web page.
Furthermore, Norway is in the process of legislating a formal claim to an area close to the North Pole based on the revised Law of the Sea Treaty.
These political signals could be early indicators for the more tension loaded scenarios.
SCIAM NW Passage Slide Show
Scientific American has a slide show online about the state of the North West Passage in a changing climate. Very nicely enhanced satelite images and some informative text.