Sea Ice

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 7, Uncertainty: 12, Sum: 19
Classification: Economics, Politics, Technology
World wide shipping routes pass through several bottlenecks. Many of which,
such as the Strait of Malacca, the Suez canal and the Panama canal, lie in potentially
very unstable regions. Hence, there are two distinct pressures on equatorial
shipping routes: i) routes get over-crowded and ii) threads by political conflicts,
piracy and terrorism [Bureau, 2007].
As of today, the amount of goods transported on the maritime shipping routes
increases every year [Association].

4.1 Increasing pressure on other routes – high piracy

Plausibility: 0.3
The bottlenecks of the marine shipping industry are congested and demand is
growing rapidly. To minimize accidents all large vessels intending to pass through
maritime bottlenecks are required to install expensive equipment for course control
and collision avoidance.
After a decline in piracy incidents in the middle of the first decade of the 21st
century (IMB CITATION HERE) terrorist discovered the hijacking of oil and gas
tankers as a strategy to exert pressure on the western world by threatening to
cause oil spills and gas explosions. It is increasingly expensive to guard or insure
ships against pirates attacks. Some countries look away while pirates operate in
their waters.

4.2 Stably increasing pressure

Plausibility: 0.4

The bottlenecks of the marine shipping industry are congested and demand is
growing, but can be planned for. To minimize accidents all large vessels intending
to pass through maritime bottlenecks are required to install expensive equipment
for course control and collision avoidance.

4.3 Stable demand

Plausibility: 0.3

The demand for marine shipping is stable, but not growing appreciably. This
might have several reasons: i) growing competition from very cheap air craft; ii)
low overall economic growth; or iii) regional conflicts.