15. New resource discovery

AMSA Evaluation: Importance: 2, Uncertainty: 8, Sum: 10
Classification: Economics, Technology, Environment
The discovery of new resources can have major impact on an ecosystem and on
the economy of a region. This KF is concerned with the discovery of substantial
amounts of oil, gas, metals and minerals that could affect the exploitation patterns
in the Arctic.

15.1 Arctic Goldrush

Plausibility: 0.7
High demand for natural resources such as fossil fuels and copper drive the exploration
of the Arctic region. Vast amounts of resources in demand are discovered
and the resources are rapidly developed and exploited.

15.2 Weak demand and restrictions

Plausibility: 0.3
Due to low demand and strong restrictions on resource extraction in the Arctic
little economically viable resources are discovered and exploited.

  1. #1 by w-f-weeks on October 18, 2008 - 10:39 am

    I believe that in the long-term the possibility of major resource extraction in the Arctic is high; specifically major oil occurrences on the Russian shelf. Because of the long time constant associated with such developments the timing of much of this may occur after 2030.

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  2. #2 by truffer on October 22, 2008 - 10:18 pm

    I would second Willy Weeks’ opinion and add that the same goes for the exploration of clathrates (high potential, but longer time frame)

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