Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Definitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
The data input for the consistency analysis are key factors or more precisely the
selected possible future projections of each key factor.
Key factors are factors that primarily characterize the field under investigation.
It is crucial to the whole scenario process that these key factors are selected very
carefully. Missing important key factors or using the wrong assumptions will
jeopardize the whole scenario process.
One or more future projections are assigned to each key factor . It is important
to analyze the field under investigation carefully, but in the process of finding future
projections some creativity is needed as well. One has to ‘think what is out of the
box’ to account for possible future developments.
Using the standard algorithms for consistency analysis the number of key factors
is limited by the computational power available. Using more than about 30
key factors with two to three future projections will result in an unacceptably long
duration of calculations. It might even exceed the computational power available.
See Subsection 6 for further explanation.
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