Sea Ice
- About
- Imprint
- Scenarios
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
- Introduction
- Aim of this Study
- Key Factor Classification
- Deļ¬nitions of Key Factors and Future Projections
- 1. Climate
- 2. Legal framework
- 3. Global Trade Dynamics – Global economic growth
- 4. Safety of other Routes
- 5. Socio-economic impact of global climate change
- 6. Oil Price
- 7. Major Arctic Shipping Disasters
- 8. Windows of Operation
- 9. Maritime Insurance Industry
- 10. Collaboration in resource extraction by China, Japan and Russia
- 11. Transit fees
- 12. Conflict between indigenous and commercial use
- 13. Arctic Enforcers
- 14. Energy sources for propulsion
- 15. New resource discovery
- 16. World Trade Patterns
- 17. Regulation in the Arctic
- Consistency matrix
- Scenarios
- Suggest Wild Cards
- Suggest Key Factors
- References
- Glossary
- Yakutat Community Energy Scenarios
- Introduction to Scenario-Management
- The Consistency and Robustness Analysis
- 1. Key Factors and their Future Projections
- 2. Assigning plausibility values to future projections
- 3. Projection Bundles
- 4. Assigning consistency values
- 5. Obtaining overall consistency values for the projection bundles
- 6. The combinatorial problem of the consistency analysis
- 7. The Robustness of a projection bundle
- Disruptive event analysis – Wild Cards
- ScenLab v1.7 Client download
- Arctic Marine Transportation by 2030
Vote on Wild Card I
Dr. Karlheinz Steinmueller, Scientific Director of Z_punkt GmbH, The Foresight Company suggested to add a Wild Card concerning a full-on war between Russia and other Arctic stakeholders.
What is your opinion on this matter? Use the poll or leave a comment (need to be registered).
You can suggest more Wild Cards here.
Scenarios for the Arctic – help wanted
Under the tab ‘Scenarios’ I have posted notes on a Scenario process for the Arctic by 2030.
What is needed now is your input. I need comments on my choice of key factors, future projections, plausibility values, and wild cards. What all this jargon means is explained under the ‘Scenario’ tab.
I order to leave me comments please register with this site using the ‘Register’ tab. Don’t worry – I am not evil! Your email address is safe with me and you will only hear from me if I need further assistance or clarification of a comment. Or once the final results of this study are out.
Thank you for your help!